Der Militärputsch in Thailand: Akteure, Hintergründe, Zusammenhänge (German Edition)
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We shall see. Silver seems very much sold out to me and should start a significant move higher. Far above legal import point. Unless some very sustained new factor has entered the market, the world price of gold is too low. TOCOM had an extraordinary and very interesting day. NY yesterday traded 78, lots: open interest fell a huge 7, lots. Dow Jones refers to "…heavy dealer short selling…" UBS attributes the weak close to: "…futher selling from the same speculative name…".
However, the large open interest fall does suggest that a considerable quantity of spec longs were in fact liquidated. Considering these factors and the Indian premium, it would be surprising if the Bear raid were not close to exhaustion.
JB www. Note particularly the lack of similarity between the Euro and the Gold price shown on the attached chart. In such conditions we can expect arbitrageurs to step in soon and correct the resultant temporary imbalance in the gold price. So we have an opportunity to see if the Fed wants the DOW even higher that it is today or they want to begin a down cycle. My guess is they are out of benevolent options [especially with the mess at Freddie Mac] and will continue ramming the DOW higher at all costs.
Additional evidence of this potential to keep rocketing the DOW is seen in the anomalous bond market activity. It keeps setting new highs]. This is the Mises "Crack-Up Boom where everybody thinks they are rich from the proliferation of paper financial instruments [Please ignore the falling dollar]. The last missing element is a "New paradigm" media spin campaign to explain higher stock AND bond moves.
I can hardly wait.
Mike Chuck checked in last evening: Bill: Very interesting day in the golds, now that the gap has been filled. At least, they have a grip on it. One must be impressed with NEM and GSS as they could have been slaughtered, but the volume remains high which I think is very positive.
Maybe once the rates goes under zero, the market will sell off. Tomorrow should be interesting in the gold complex………… I was just reflecting about the action in these incredible markets. I include this chart of the XAU to show that something extremely dynamic is afoot here. Given the relentless superliberal flow of funds from the "authorities" that is flooding the markets and this action, and the very positive technical signs for gold and now silver and the contrary signs for the stock market, I assume we might be ready for your long anticipated blow out here.
If there ever was a day to punish the shares, it was today and yet on very heavy volume they commended themselves most admirably.
A new high on NEM might be the signal for the rest of the troops to launch out. It this is to be, it should be soon.
Chuck Then again this afternoon: How fascinating and rigged! Bill: I am totally transfixed by this amazing market. Is there any other word for it? For anyone who loves markets and has time to study them, appreciate this very moment of history. When have we ever had such relentless buying, with no setbacks or testing?
And with a bond market that displays the same character. And with no questioning of it as the economic statistics get worse and worse. What will be the trigger of the reversal. What I see now is that there is a white knight coming to the rescue-gold.
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This monopoly game cannot constrain the metal much longer. And if you are watching closely, the shares are starting to outshine the metal. Market moves are highlighted by quality leadership. Each of these has been having problems getting out of its own way even during this mindless compulsive buying binge. In spite of the daily move up, you cannot find a quality industrial stock making new highs here. But in the gold complex, we have Newmont, the one the large funds can buy first, and Freeport McMoran, FCX a copper and gold company with very large reserves, breaking out.
This is how bull markets act. We should soon see others attending the breakout party, especially those companies with fresh stories and legitimate properties or production. There will be new leadership in this very powerful phase, most likely coming from the smaller mining companies not constrained by being too large.
Put all of this in perspective, and I believe we have come to the very threshold of something very special both in the market and in the gold complex. Take it all in. What is about to happen will change the world forever. Its getting harder and harder to find a bearish advisor as they continue to run for the hills.
Only Today I was thinking about how desensitized the share markets have become to what would have previously been considered significant factors. Some speculate that The DOW keeps walking on air from a steady diet of Fed intervention through its release of repurchase agreements.
In addition, they have all but flat out said that they are using new money to buy 30 year bonds, forcing interest rates lower and forcing some of the cash used for bond buybacks into stocks. Maybe we will evolve to a point where the markets are happily compliant, engineered by the G8 through massive derivative leverage and that will be that Is it different this time?
Anyway, this is sort of the theme tonight That said, the firing of the FRE Board is a big deal to me. To me it just indicates a systemic rot of ethics and corporate behavior that is being downplayed by the politicians, not fixed. Biiiig slice of pie for me Poor Martha gets to be the scapegoat.
FOX news If you want to hear the other side, listen to Rupert Perhaps some of your sources can get to the bottom of it. I suspect that the FED and all of its cohorts will be working overtime behind the scenes to clean up this mess. Perhaps we have a far bigger problem about to descend on us in August, Best regards, Bob Not to be ignored as Bob says: June 10, -- The bookkeeping time bomb being probed at Freddie Mac could yank the rug out from under our booming housing market - the last leg holding up the economy.
Can you explain for the "common folk" how the futures market can control the price and how it relates to the physical market. In order to get some conviction your readers need to know the relationship of these two different markets. The more simple you can make this the better. Regards, David Schectman The futures market can only affect the price for a short period of time.
Eventually, gold must be delivered by the gold shorts to the gold longs. If it is large as we think, say tonnes, then The Gold Cartel and other big shorts are doomed. They will run out of supply, no matter what games they play in the short-term with derivatives contracts.
If they are close to the minus number put out by the WGC, gold will not seriously advance for almost a decade. Looking forward to the report on the details. I thought I would make some comments regarding the Commitments data that might be of some use to the newer members at the Cafe. The reasons - or so goes conventional wisdom - is that the commercials are the ones whose actual business consists of dealing with the specific commodity that underlies the futures contract and thus are supposedly better informed as to the "real" happenings in the physical market.
Thus, they understand when a particular commodity is "cheap" or when it is "dear. When prices have been driven to unsustainable lofty levels or depressed to unsustainably low levels by the funds, the savvy commercials will be either selling or buying like crazy knowing full well that the market has reached an extreme level that in the real physical world represents a bargain or a tremendous opportunity. In an normal market and one that trades free from interference, this can prove to be a most profitable tactic to follow.
Once the big funds commit to huge positions, all it takes is a price movement of some sort in the opposite direction to send them heading to the exits in masse resulting in huge price moves. The problem occurs when we come to the gold market. Just who are the "commericals" in the gold market? Are gold mining entities considered entities?
So we could assume, all things considered, that among the huge commercial short positions a goodly number would be those of the mining interests. In a normal market, that would be a good way of reading this market. However, we know that this is simply not the case when it comes to gold. The biggest problem facing the mining companies is trying to exit their short hedge positions which are underwater. Simply put, they are trying to buy, not sell. Newmont is reducing its hedges and even Placer Dome and the notorious Barrick are making noises in their reports and to analysts that they are reducing their hedge positions in the face of the rising gold price and bullish long term fundamentals.
So again the obvious question that any gold investor ought to be asking - Just who are these "commercials" who are tripping over themselves to add to an already huge net short position. It is certainly not those who need to buy gold for manufacturing purposes such as a jewelry interests. The risk they are exposed to is not falling gold prices but rather rising gold prices. If the gold they need to manufacture their rings and necklaces, etc. Their concern is if the price of the raw material they need begins to increase.
Their profit margins then are squeezed. Prudence dictates that they would establish what are termed "long hedges. If gold rises and they are then forced to pay up, they can simply sell their future contracts at a higher price than they bought them for using those profits to offset the increasd cost that they must pay for the physical gold they require on the open market. So we can rule these interests out.
We have eliminated two commercial interest groups - the mining outfits and jewelry interests. Both of these groups are buying , not selling. Who else is left in the industry that can be considered a commercial?